Brief preview of the upcoming week #3
(Jan 22 - 26) Rate Decisions, Economic Calendar and many Charts
We are expecting three central bank decisions (BoJ, BoC, ECB) in the coming week, although these are unlikely to be accompanied by any changes in interest rates. Of course, the press conferences could be all the more informative. I am paying particular attention to the Bank of Japan, which is still working with negative key interest rates. You can also access an overview of the G10 central bank dates for 2024 at any time at fxdesk.de.
The following table shows a personal selection of the most important economic data releases this week. Inflation figures in the broadest sense are likely to have the greatest influence on exchange rates.
EURUSD -- 1.0897 (close)
The currency pair is still holding above the green ascending trend line and in particular above the 200 dma (1.0847). A daily closing price above the 50 ema (1.0906) could push the euro back into bullish territory. However, I consider other crosses to be more promising dollar shorts (for example, against the Australien dollar).
GBPUSD -- 1.2704 (close)
The pound has been trading in the 1.2600/1.2800 range against the dollar for around a month. This range is also reflected in the technical picture. On the one hand, Sterling remains bullish above the 50 ema and 200 dma averages. On the other hand, 1.2842 has proven to be a solid resistance level. In the short term, the trading range could therefore continue for a while. However, I expect a breakout by the end of the month (31jan FED meeting) or the beginning of February (01feb BoE meeting) at the latest.
USDCHF -- 0.8683 (close)
The dollar finally reclaimed the previous year's low last Monday and thus entered bullish territory. After seven green daily candles in a row, the 50 ema could dampen the upward movement for the time being. Nevertheless, above the 0.8550 level there is a promising setup for dollar longs.*
USDJPY -- 148.12 (close)
The interest rate differential still makes the currency pair attractive for dollar long carry trades. However, this trade is massively overcrowded and I believe that JPY shorts will be unwound within the first quarter. You can read the reasoning here, for example. Until then, however, timing is everything and shorts are expensive. In this respect, I do not want to make any statements about short-term price movements. The currency pair is slowly reaching overbought territory, but the 2022/2023 highs could of course act as a magnet again.
AUDUSD -- 0.6597 (close)
I consider this currency pair to be a promising candidate for dollar shorts. Last year's breakout level at the 0.6522 level held perfectly on Wednesday and Thursday and then the 200-day line was quickly reclaimed on Friday. Ideally, another green daily candle will be added tomorrow. Below the 0.6500 mark, however, the bullish scenario is over for the time being.
I wish you a great start to the week,
Sebbo
(*reminder: my content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances.)