After the Bank of England postponed its interest rate meeting to this week, the calendar has become even fuller:
21sep FED
22sep BoJ
22sep SNB
22sep BoE
22sep Norges Bank
(source: fxdesk.de)
Main event will be the FOMC on Wednesday. While most analysts expect a rate hike of 75 basis points (bp), there are also market participants who expect 100 bp. I can imagine that the FED is still interested in a soft landing and would therefore prefer to raise in the double digits. We will see.
However, the Dollar-Index (DXY) is well supported above the 109.30 level. Above 110, the DXY cannot make much progress either. As such, there is a good chance we will see a larger move tomorrow night that should bring the consolidation phase to an end. The past somewhat lame trading range of 109.25 / 110.25 will hopefully be history then.
(source: fxstreet.com)
In terms of individual Dollar currency pairs, the following levels will be of particular interest tomorrow:
EURUSD -- 1.0011
Parity is still a magnet. The 50 ema (1.0118), the red descending trend line (1.0092) and the upper Bollinger band (1.0089) together form a key resistance zone that bulls have to overcome. On the other hand, bears hope for a break of the 0.9955/45 support zone tomorrow night.
GBPUSD -- 1.1433
At time of writing Sterling looks firm against Dollasr above the 1.1400 treshold. But with respect to the recent narrow trading range it is too early for bulls to get excited. A daily close above the mid Bollinger band (1.1579) could give you some confidence. But this close to 1.1400 is still a long way off. Below the last two lows at 1.1350 and 1.1355 you should avoid longs for the time being.
AUDUSD -- 0.6708
The Aussie is also trading at lows, which is always dangerous and difficult to trade ahead of big events. The best advice is probably to stay away from such currency pairs for the next 24 hours, but who can? Short-term resistance comes in at 0.6770/74 (recent highs) and a big figure higher at 0.6868 (50 ema). Below 0.6681 there is no support to be found on the daily chart.
Good luck,
Sebbo