The Dollar has been under pressure since the post CPI spike last week Thursday to a high of 113.90 (Dollarindex = DXY). Dollar bulls are now hoping that 112 support holds and current weakness is short lived. A daily close below this level increases the likelihood of the DXY falling further. A key driver of Dollar weakness is the recovery in stock markets along with hopes that inflation may have peaked. Nevertheless, such correlations can stop at any time.
EURUSD -- 0.9837
The near-perfect downtrend still holds. However, the first squeeze could then be larger once the resistance zone is broken. The red descending trend line is coming in around 0.9917 today. Together with the 50 ema (0.9928) the initial stop level is set but protagonists with deeper pockets may wait for parity to break. But of course each additional day increases the gap between resistance and parity, and a stop above parity becomes more expensive. Next support can be found around 0.9772 (mid Bollinger band).
USDJPY -- 149.08
The BOJ's interest in intervening quickly again does not appear to be as strong as the market believes. On the other hand, the constant calls for intervention also seem a bit blatant. Referring to the charts, I would like to point out the weekly one in particular. The Dollar is currently in its tenth green week against the Yen. This is very unusual and I would be very surprised if this week ended green as well. But how far it will rise before is set in the stars. A first goal could be the level of 150/151.
Good luck,
Sebbo