Last week Tuesday the Dollar-Index (DXY) finally almost reached my target zone: “I see a correction potential up to the 105/103 range” (Morning Call #110). Of course I would have liked to have commented earlier, but my son was ill and since I work from home, I also took care of him. Then the virus finally caught me.
The low at 105.32 now gives us orientiation on the downside. If the DXY stays above 107.50, the Dollar recovery could continue towards the 109 level. In this respect, the index is currently trading roughly in the middle of the 105/109 range. I am therefore very cautious with new positions at this level.
EURUSD -- 1.0240
The 200 dma held last week. And if I had had a little less foggy head, I would have happily bought Dollars there. Next supports come in around 1.0200 and 1.0096/94, with the latter roughly coinciding with a move to 109 in the DXY.
GBPUSD -- 1.1819
That was an impressive move from the November 4th low (1.1148) to the November 15th high (1.2029). After almost 8% rally within 8 trading days, a small breather is not surprising. But for now Sterling seems well supported above the 1.1740/10 support zone. Above this zone, the 200 dma (1.2216) is within reach, coming down several pips a day.
USDJPY -- 141.74
I am not sure we have seen the lows yet. However, the currency pair could still run up to the 50 ema (143.58) without changing the bearish picture. Above the mid Bollinger band (144.36) and in particular the 144.99 treshold, however, shorts are again at risk.
Good luck,
Sebbo