Several Dollar crosses hit important levels yesterday and today:
EURUSD made it above the 200 dma (1.0368) and passed even the psychological important 1.0500 treshold. The next resistance can be found around 1.0597 (upper Bollinger band). Above that level I would not fade the rally anymore.
The same applies for the GBPUSD currency pair which passed its 200 dma (1.2150) with a big green candle yesterday. As long as Sterling trades below the upper Bollinger band (1.2344) you may think about fading the rally (1.0340 low 26sep —> 1.2298 high of today; almost 19%).
The crowded long USDJPY trade has recently been unwound. The Dollar is currently trading below the 200 dma (134.50) against the Yen. However, this average line often holds on the first try. In any case, it makes sense to take profit on shorts here.
The currency pair AUDUSD still lags the other crosses and trades one figure below its 200 dma (0.6923) at time of writing. The average line has already been tested several times during the year (May, June and July). Whether it would hold a fourth time is quite questionable.
With NFPs in a few hours we will see if the Dollar sell off continues into the weekly close. However, it is quite difficult to predict how the Dollar will react to strong and in particular weak numbers. In the latter case, the safe-haven demand could be lower than usual.
The Dollar-Index (DXY) is trading just below the 104.63/64 support. Below this level, the next target around 102/101 is within reach.
Good luck,
Sebbo