Dollar index (DXY) has been trading firmer since Thursday last week but is still in consolidation territory with resistance around 102.55 ish. Only well above the 103.00 level does the index return to a bullish scenario. Until then, be cautious about dollar longs as the main events of the week are still ahead of us. I have written several times that another dip may be missing before the dollar can move higher. Of course, that doesn't have to happen that way.
EURUSD -- 1.0823
The movement in the dollar index is of course also reflected in this currency pair. Above the 1.0800 big figure together with the mid Bollinger band (1.0796) and the former high at 1.0787 the euro support zone is well defined. With the FED tomorrow evening and the ECB on Thursday, it makes sense to wait and see for the time being. In the medium and long term I see the euro significantly lower again, but the better level for shorts is also higher between 1.1000 and 1.1200 ish.
GBPUSD -- 1.2315
The currency pair rejected the 1.2420/30/48 resistance zone several times but cannot make progress below 1.2300 either. I remain bearish on sterling but again fear the upside is not done yet. The Monetary Policy Committee announces the Bank of England’s Bank Rate on Thursday.
USDJPY -- 130.38
On Jan 16th the currency pair touched an interim low of 127.22 and is now trying to break the 130.20 mid Bollinger band resistance. Unfortunately I did not trade the low as I was expecting a deeper correction to the 126/125 treshold (see #125). With the currency pair trading quite exactly in the middle of the 1.2700 / 1.3300 range I do not have much to do on current spot rate.
Good luck,
Sebbo