As expected, the 105 mark has turned out to be a barrier that the dollar index (DXY) cannot overcome for the time being. At the same time, the 104 support is not far away, which should narrow the short-term trading range together with a rather thin data calendar. Things will only get more interesting tomorrow with the German HICP (Feb prel) and US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb). Within the 104/105 range, scalps attempts make the most sense for the time being. Above the 105 resistance one should be cautious with dollar shorts, the same applies to longs below the 104 support.
EURUSD -- 1.0610
“(…) I recommend taking profit around 1.0540/20 at the latest”. We hit the low quite well in the last Morning Call (#132) given the intraday lows at 1.0536 on Friday last week respective 1.0533 this week Monday. The euro sell off was not bad and a recovery in between is quite normal. The next resistance can be found at the 1.0665 (ema 50), followed by the 1.0706 (mid Bollinger band). However, the euro should not rise much higher.
USDJPY -- 136.69
The 200 dma (137.14) is within reach and could stop the recovery for now. However, a spike above it in the direction of 139.00/39 cannot be ruled out. In this respect, it is up to the personal risk profile whether one takes advantage of the recent rally (loy: 16jan 127.22 > 7%) to buy yen at current spot. However, my impression is that the currency pair needs to go a few pips higher before it can fall again.
AUDUSD -- 0.6726
Falling equities and rising interest rates (US in each case) have not been to the Aussie's liking. All support zones have been breached and it should be difficult for the Aussie to recover quickly from this sell off. I advise against trying to catch the low at current spot. I would rather try to buy dollars at the level of the pivot line (0.6829).
Good luck,
Sebbo