Kids are great, but don't mess with viruses from kindergarten. But since the weekend I am well again and we can start the new quarter.
However, the dollar had not had such a good end to the quarter and is trading lower than on 1 January. In the last few trading days, 102 has emerged as support in the dollar index (DXY) and we will be looking to this mark in the coming sessions. Below this zone, there is a high risk of a dip below the low of the year (100.81 02feb). In terms of the currency pairs we regularly look at here, the dollar certainly looks battered. So it makes sense to be cautious with dollar longs.
EURUSD -- 1.0849
The former resistance zone at 1.0787/1.0800 is now an important support. There was already a test this morning (lod 1.0788), but it held. The upside is limited for now at the last two daily highs at 1.0926/27 and the upper Bollinger band (1.0959) could also offer some resistance. Above that, the high for the year at 1.1033 comes into play again.
GBPUSD -- 1.2340
The currency pair rejected the 1.2431/47 resistance zone on last Friday and the sideways market could now last a little longer. For this to happen, however, the daily candle must turn red today, and it does not look like it will do so since the dip this morning. Above the high of the year, one should get rid of sterling shorts for the time being.
USDJPY -- 133.44
The dollar finds steadily buyers against the yen on a comparatively elevated level. If the currency pair can move further away from the 50 ema (133.30), the 135 mark should quickly come within reach again. I am still looking for shorts, but after missing the test of the 200-day line so brilliantly, I am naturally cautious.
Good luck,
Sebbo