The dollar index (DXY) dipped through the 102 support on Tuesday but there hasn’t been much follow through yet with weekly lows around 101.45 and 101.41 respectively. In the short term, 102 should now be resistance again, but this close to the holidays I would not trust the technicals very much. It is rather thin holiday trading that should be with us for the next 48 hours either. Next week Wednesday, US CPI data for March will be released, followed by Retail Sales numbers on Friday. In this respect, the dollar could trade sideways in the 101.30 / 102.50 range for the time being.
EURUSD -- 1.0903
The upper Bollinger band has limited the rally of the Euro on Tuesday. Yesterday's red candle even shows a bearish signal, but for the reasons mentioned above, the significance is also likely to be limited. The currency pair will probably not leave the 1.0800 / 1.1000 range until Wednesday. In this respect, I would fade the extremes.
USDCHF -- 0.9053
With the help of hawkish SNB comments the Swiss Franc is soaring against a weak Dollar. Only the brave will long the Dollar at these depressed levels. Of course, yesterday’s 0.9008 could have been the low, but the market is certainly reluctant to miss a test of the 0.9000 mark. Below the mid Bollinger band (0.9176) and the 50 ema (0.9233) the currency pair trades in bearish territory.
AUDUSD -- 0.6694
The market is eager for a higher Aussie but it just does not happen. There was a big green candle on Monday lifting the currency pair above all resistances only to fall again after the RBA board meeting. Obviously it has to go down a bit before it can really go up (sorry for the platitude!). In the medium term, the 0.6500 mark could be interesting for a long entry if the bulls give up in a spike low.
Happy Easter!
Sebbo