The 102 level still works well as resistance in the dollar index (DXY). Yesterday’s high was 101.95 and after printing an intraday high at 101.89 this am the index is offered again. I do not think that this range trading is going to end anytime before central bank meetings next week. On the contrary, it currently looks as if the dollar wants to test the lower end of the recent 100.80/102.20 range again.
The risk sentiment has also not deteriorated sustainably so far. Although we saw a spike in the VIX yesterday for once, overall the market is still holding up well. Of course, that doesn't help the dollar either if you still believe in its status as a reserve currency. At least outside the BRIC countries, I am holding on to this approach for the time being.
EURUSD -- 1.1045
Although the currency pair closed the previous trading day below the 1.1000 level, it cannot make progress to the downside. There is still too much buying interest in anticipation of a weaker dollar. From the technical point of view there has not much changed. The next resistance can be found around 1.1058/76 (recent highs, upper Bollinger band). Above that zone, the euro is very likely to to reach the 1.1185/00 target zone.
USDJPY -- 133.56
Even a green dollar candle did not help yen bears yesterday. Although the currency pair is still trading in bullish territory above the 50 ema (133.34), it looks battered. The upper side was marked when the 135 level was reached and the pair will have to slowly turn around here if it is to be retested. With a clear daily close below the mid Bollinger (133.19) band I would get rid of longs.
AUDUSD -- 0.6604
The trading range has been relatively narrow since the beginning of March at around two and a half big figures. Currently, the low for the year at 0.6564 is within reach. And as is so often the case, the danger is great that the pair will only go up again after a test (if at all). However, it is of course worth a long attempt, especially assuming that this week's volatility is not yet sufficient to leave the medium-term trading ranges.
Good luck,
Sebbo