The dollar index printed the second green monthly candle this year and closed yesterday quite significantly above the level of 104. I therefore think that follow-up dollar buying into June is the most likely scenario for the time being. At 105.65, it could finally be decided whether the May dollar rally will continue in the second half of the year. Below 103.80, the bullish picture is over for the time being.
EURUSD -- 1.0673
The currency pair is slowly approaching the lower end of this year’s 1.05/1.10 range. Along with this, the RSI could show an oversold picture with the next dip, which could eventually attract buyers near the psychologically important 1.05 level. In this respect, I advise to take profit on Euro shorts within the next hundred pips.
GBPUSD -- 1.2417
The pound is trading bid again against the dollar since a few days. but has not made it yet above the 1.2447 resistance. As long as 1.2447 holds, one can try sterling shorts with stop above the mid Bollinger band (1.2465).
USDCHF -- 0.9109
The currency pair is trading in bullish territory but lags a convincing bigger green candle. I had expected a bit more follow through above the 0.9060 level. The spike to 0.9147 last week Friday was not bad, but real follow through looks different than a weekly close at exactly 0.9100. Above 0.9060, I remain bullish. Below the parity, the bullish scenario is over for now.
Good luck,
Sebbo