Last Friday, the dollar (DXY = Dollar Index) was able to print the ninth green weekly candle in a row. Tonight (european), finally, it could be decided whether the dollar strength will also be enough for the tenth week. No further interest rate step by the FED is expected (5.5% cons), which is also in line with my opinion. I don't have a particularly hawkish expectation for the press conference either. A green tenth week is not my base scenario.
In the short-term picture, the high for the year (105.89) is definitely within reach. After the decent > 5% rally, it makes sense to take profit there at the latest. A spike beyond the high cannot be ruled out, of course. Below the 104 mark, the dollar rally is over for the time being. The following picture shows the weekly DXY chart.
EURUSD -- 1.0697
The currency pair touched the minor 1.0635 support last Thursday and has risen since. However, the downtrend is still valid as long as the euro trades below the 1.0754/69 resistance zone (mid Bollinger band and hod 12sep).
GBPUSD -- 1.2375
Sterling has lost 6% of its value against the dollar since the 13jul high. Below the 200-day line, the pound remains battered. Nevertheless, it could make sense to reduce possible sterling longs here. The currency pair is already slightly oversold and the next major support (1.2308) is close. A recovery could be violent, but offers the chance for a re-entry.
USDJPY -- 148.02
The discussed 148 level was finally reached this morning (“..and courageous players could consider buying yen towards the 148 level.” MC #161). Regular readers already know that I consider dollar longs against the yen to be the most crowded trade that will be unwound in the medium term. Therefore, I am increasing my yen longs on current spot level, although of course I cannot rule out the 2022 year highs.*
Good luck,
Sebbo
(*reminder: my content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances.)