In the short term, the dollar dip here could be over for now. At the time of writing, the dollar index (= DXY) is trying to regain 105.65 support after closing below it yesterday. Nevertheless, I would like to refer again to the last Morning Call, in which I outline why I think a major dollar sell off could be imminent. This week Thursday is the next ECB interest rate meeting, for which no further rate hike is expected. The FED meeting next week on Wednesday will probably be more interesting. Until then, I can imagine a sideways movement in the dollar as long as there are no strong impulses from the US bond market in the meantime.
EURUSD -- 1.0646
The currency pair rejected the 50 ema (1.0673) this morning. Short-term support comes in at 1.0635 already. Should the next few days go sideways, the range 1.0600/1.0700 could hold for the time being.
GBPUSD -- 1.2253
There are a number of resistances between the 1.2308 and 1.2352 levels that the pound needs to overcome for a major recovery. However, the 200-day line is then also not far away. In this respect, one should be patient with new shorts. Long trades in the direction of 1.2200/1.2189 probably make more sense at the moment.
USDJPY -- 149.52
The important 150 mark has held for the time being, but it is to be feared that only a short squeeze above it can turn the market around. So the currency pair continues to trade in the direction of pain and that is on the upside. Of course, it can also turn here and in hindsight "it was so clear that the 150 would hold". However, players without deep pockets should place their stop directly above the 150 mark. You can also enter a short trade at any time later.
USDCHF -- 0.8921
In the last CHF update I had recommended a 2-week FX option (hedged), which would have paid off just five days later. The risk of directional trades can be circumvented well with FX options, but market makers like to be short the short maturities for a reason. However, it is always worth taking a look at the quoted pip prices, which makes it easy to see the break even (at maturity).
Below the 50 ema and 200 day line, the short scenario remains valid. Longs must be closely monitored.
Good luck,
Sebbo