“Regular readers know that I expect a major sell off in the dollar. But as always in trading, it often takes patience for such moves” (MC #168 - 20oct23)
It did indeed take some patience and an interim intraday high at 107.11, but last week Friday the Dollar Index left the October range 105.54/107.35 with a weekly close at 105.07 to the downside. Nevertheless, false breakouts are part of our business and the risk of a short-term reversal should now be kept in mind. In the medium term, however, the picture of falling yields and rising government debt in the US remains unchanged. Ideally, the dollar index will now remain below the 105.50 mark.
EURUSD -- 1.0748
The currency pair is approaching the 200 dma (1.0808). I would rather look for shorts in the direction of this important resistance line. Above the 50 ema (1.0637), the euro is supported.
GBPUSD -- 1.2416
The pound almost reached the 200-day line (1.2435) against the dollar this morning. The upward breakout above the resistance zone between 1.2304 and 1.2337 has been strong. In this respect, short stops must be placed tightly. However, I am not looking for shorts here.
AUDUSD -- 0.6506
The Aussie has been consolidating above the 0.6285 level for several weeks. After breaking through the 50 ema (0.6395) last Wednesday, the trend could now continue upwards. The high of 30 August (0.65212) offers the next minor resistance.
Good luck,
Sebbo