The FED minutes yesterday put a damper on the dollar bears. Apparently, the report hit a slightly hawkish sweet spot, which helped the dollar for the time being without triggering a risk-off move. In addition, the long weekend is coming up in the USA (Thanksgiving). Obviously, no player wants to pay the carry for dollar shorts. With regard to the dollar index (=DXY), however, the bearish scenario is still valid. Shorts are only at serious risk above the 104.40/55 resistance zone.
EURUSD -- 1.0904
The currency pair was overbought and turned red after hitting an intraday high of 1.0965 yesterday morning. Euro bulls are looking for a daily close above the 1.0895/85 support zone. A clear close above the 1.0900 mark would be ideal, as this would negate the positive momentum in the dollar. From a medium-term perspective, the currency pair is trading at the upper end of the 1.0500/1.1000 annual trading range. Players with hedging needs (dollar buyers) should take this into account.
USDJPY -- 149.07
The support at 147.31 (03oct lod) has held for the time being. This means that a quick dip to the 145 mark is off the table for now. Above the 50 ema (149.50) it will be difficult for the Yen bulls and the important 150 mark will come within reach again. Friday night we get the latest CPI figures from Japan. Liquidity is likely to be thin. This could cause a lot of movement.
AUDUSD -- 0.6559
The currency pair made it above the 0.6522 resistance on Monday after three month of trading below that treshold. In the meantime, however, the 200-day line has also come down. This has slowed the short-term upward potential for the time being. Nevertheless, I now expect higher spot level in the medium term. The old June highs are still some way off, but the 0.6700 level should soon be within reach. Below the 50 ema, the bullish scenario is over again.
Good luck,
Sebbo