The dollar index (=DXY) has apparently ended its consolidation pattern this morning and is starting the trading day with new highs for the year. However, the US will not return from the long weekend until this afternoon. Whether the index can hold above the 103.10 mark remains to be seen. It is also certainly important to keep an eye on worsening risk sentiment, which could push the dollar higher for the time being. In a risk-off scenario, demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency could outweigh the dollar's negative arguments (rising U.S. deficit and falling yields at the same time). In the medium term, the important 100.80/104.25 trading range remains valid for now.
EURUSD -- 1.0881
The currency pair is testing the 50 ema (1.0895) this european morning. Next levels of supports are given by the lower Bollinger band (1.0867) and the 200 dma (1.0848). In addition, a green ascending support line at around 1.0867 is coming in today. It could therefore make sense in the short term to make a long attempt here. However, a daily close below 1.0825 would already be the end of this trade for me.*
USDCHF -- 0.8609
The Swiss franc has lost some if its shine and is trading weaker against the dollar since the beginning of the year. Above the low of the last year (0.8553), the more likely scenario is now rising spot levels. The first target could be 100 pips higher from here at the 50 ema (0.8709). Nevertheless, you have to remain flexible. A daily close below the mid Bollinger band (0.8527) will put an end to the dollar's recovery for the time being.
AUDUSD -- 0.6600
The year-end rally in the Aussie did not last. The currency pair turned shortly before the upper resistance and has been offered ever since. Perhaps the weakness is due to the geographical proximity to the daily red Asian market, or perhaps the still subdued risk-off sentiment in the G10 markets has already been enough. The next support lies at the 200-day line (0.8582), which admittedly had no particular relevance in the previous year. In this respect, I consider the previous breakout level at 0.6522 to be the more important support, which must ultimately hold.
Good luck,
Sebbo
(*reminder: my content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances.)