The dollar short stop level of 105.00 in the dollar index (DXY) defined in the last Morning Call has held for the time being. Tonight, the FED Minutes and the highly anticipated Nvidia quarterly results are the next two events that could possibly move the market. With regard to the FED minutes, however, it should be noted that the latest CPI and PPI figures (both higher than expected) were not yet known at the time of the last meeting. In contrast, the Nvidia result is more likely to have an impact on general risk sentiment, which usually has a negative correlation with the dollar.
Dollar bears see a daily close below the 104.00 level in the best case tonight. This could finally signal the end of the rally that has been active since the beginning of the year. For dollar bulls, on the other hand, the 104.70/105.00 resistance zone remains a major hurdle that needs to be overcome.
EURUSD -- 1.0797
The currency pair is trading in a narrow range between its 200 dma (1.0826) and the mid Bollinger band (1.0791) at time of writing. I wouldn't want to jump on any side here without great conviction. The minor support at the 1.0724 level held last week and triggered a countermovement. Euro bears will have to accept that for now. Euro bulls, on the other hand, do not want to see a daily closing price below the 1.0790 level.
USDCHF -- 0.8805
“The currency pair is very likely to test the 200-day line in the coming session. In this respect, I would use weakness to buy.” (MC #181 - 06feb24)
The last comment on the Swiss franc was a good one. In this respect, it makes sense to be less active here for the time being. The drop height for new longs is quite high at this level. After all, it could fall to the mid Bollinger Band or even the 50 ema without ending the medium-term bullish scenario. A confirmed daily close above the 200-day line, on the other hand, could give bulls a new boost.
AUDUSD -- 0.6551
The Aussie has benefited from the special risk-on sentiment since October last year in particular. At the beginning of the year, however, the usually negative correlation between risk sentiment and the dollar disappeared. This hit the Aussie hard. However, the Aussie sell-off may have come to an end after the currency pair reclaimed the 0.6522 level. The lower Bollinger band can be used as a stop level for longs.
Good luck,
Sebbo