The dollar index (=DXY) is consolidating at a higher level and the test of the 107.00/34 resistance zone should still be pending. In any case, I am not looking for dollar shorts here yet and will wait and see. This week, Thursday, the preliminary US GDP data for the first quarter will be published. On Friday we will receive the US PCE data for March. The Fed is likely to keep an eye on both sets of economic data as it holds its FOMC meeting next week Wednesday. Below the 105 treshold, however, the bullish dollar scenario would be over for the time being.
EURUSD -- 1.0649
The currency pair ist trading in bearish territory. As long as the euro remains below the former 1.0724 support level, a test of the important 1.0500 mark is very likely. The current consolidation phase must end on the downside for this to happen.
GBPUSD -- 1.2335
The pound lost the important support level of 1.2500 last week. Nevertheless, there were still some opportunities to open short positions in the course of the week. Unfortunately, I missed them all. The currency pair is slowly reaching oversold territory, which can be used to take profit. In the medium-term picture, the next big figures 1.23/22/21 seem to be more a question of when than if. However, I do not think that this will happen in one go. A consolidation pattern is likely to form first, which would also lift the RSI back to a more neutral level.
USDCHF -- 0.9116
The October high at 0.9244 remains the target of the current upward trend. The attempt to sell off last Friday has failed for the time being, but basically shows which direction the currency pair will take if there really is a risk-off move. And sooner or later, even in these currently rather complacent markets, risks will be priced in again at a more adequate level. I will start looking for dollar shorts in the direction of 0.9200.*
Good luck,
Sebbo
(*reminder: my content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances.)