The Dollar-Index trades just above the 96 level relatively unchanged to the friday close. The test of the upper end of the recent 95.50/96.60 range on tuesday was just short-lived and again the fx market is waiting for new catalysts. Tomorrow’s CPI numbers could be such a driver but consensus is already high (YoY +6.8%) and could lead to disappointment. Nevertheless the market will try to read into the print if faster tapering could be announced at the FED meeting next wednesday.
EURUSD -- 1.1314
We have put the stop for the short scenario at 1.1310 in the last update. After yesterday’s break of that level spot rallied to 1.1355 but stopped just before the 1.1360 resistance and is grinding lower since. Currency pair is now back in the 1.1290/1.1360 range with short-term support above the 1.1300 treshold.
USDCHF -- 0.9221
I have read arguments the Dollar lost some of its shine amid soaring risk markets this week as its safe-haven value is no longer needed. With respect to the swiss Franc the mood was never that good. Although the currency pair spiked on monday it is grinding lower since either. The triangle chart pattern still works well but with narrowing red descending and green ascending trend line an outbreak should be approaching until the end of the year.
AUDUSD -- 0.7155
The close below the big 0.70 mark on friday night was painful and I do not want to be the guy who sold at 0.6993 (low of the year). Aussie has reclaimed the former 0.7106 support on tuesday already and is now trying to push above the 0.7170 resistance. Nevertheless I am not convinced of a sustainable AUD rally yet. It is purely based on the assumption of green markets and I doubt the recent risk-on mood can finalize into a santa claus rally. A daily close above 0.7170/0.7183 (mid Bollinger band) is a bullish signal whereas a falling back below 0.7100 is bearish again.
Good luck,
Sebbo