There is not much left to write today as FED meeting is due this evening / afternoon. The Dollar-Index trades just below its short-term 96.60 resistance. That level needs special attention and a break could push the Dollar above the 97 mark and finally to the old 97.80 interims high. The next short-term support level is located at 95.55 whereas the mid-term downside treshold 94.75 is still a long way off.
With respect to monetary policy I expect Powell to be more hawkish today than Lagarde on thursday. That should support a stronger Dollar and weaker Euro in the medium term. But positioning has a huge impact on the price action. Therefore I recommend to fade exaggerated moves if they are contrary to your directional bias and watch your levels carefully. The market could be already long Dollar which can quickly disappoint. But do not forget that ECB can disappoint even more eventually.
To get rid of this two-way risk you can still buy optionality. I published a Trade Idea (3 mth EURUSD Straddle) recently that can deliver a decent profit with active delta hedging around the next two events and thinning markets towards the end of the year.
Good luck,
Sebbo