The relief rally seems to have peaked this morning for the time being. The Russia-Ukraine conflict does not appear to have been fully resolved yet and the market is waiting for new positive drivers. US Retails Sales this european afternoon could be such a driver but unfortunately you will only find out the narrative of the market (economic recovery vs. inflationary pressures) after the data print. Anyway a high print should support the Dollar.
We already know that Bullard is quite hawkish (see Market Update, 11feb22) and tonight's FOMC minutes will give us more useful clues as to what the FED thinks overall. There might be a chance of disappointment though. So we can be excited to see where the Dollar closes tonight.
Technically, the Dollar is in neutral territory again within the well-known trading range 95.60 / 96.60 even if the last two candles point to the downside at time of writing. It is to be feared that this consolidation process could drag on until the next FED meeting on March 16th (G10 Central Bank Calendar 2022) but I still have hope for more volatility in February.
Good luck,
Sebbo