The Euro enjoyed two daily closes above 1.1000 on wednesday and thursday and is now struggling to reclaim the treshold. Nothing has really changed in the Ukraine-Russia conflict but a supposedly good news was used on wednesday to start the EURUSD relief rally. The latter stopped exactly at 1.1121 yesterday afternoon after Lagarde’s rhetoric maybe slightly surprised to the hawkish upside.
With the weekend ahead all eyes are on the weekly close, of course, but in this news and sentiment driven market the Euro is likely to meander a couple of session around this important level. In this respect, short-term opportunities can arise on the long and the short side if you define the new trading range between 1.08 and 1.1240
Main event next week will be the FED meeting on March 16th (see G10 Central Bank Calendar 2022). A rate hike is almost certain but at least to me it is quite unclear what the market is finally doing with a 25 bp or 50 bp rate step. The US 10yr Treasury Yield is quoted around the important 2.00% level and it doesn't seem to be the end yet. As such, 25bps may not be enough to keep the Dollar up.
Have a nice weekend!
Sebbo