The Dollar-Index printed a high of 99.414 last week along with the Euro hitting a new low at 1.0806. The magical 100 level was not far off but at time of writing the DXY is offered again trading below the 99 treshold. Main event this week will be FED tomorrow and facing runaway inflation and rising Treasury-Yields (10yr 2.106%) they should finally deliver their first rate hike for years. As I wrote last week, I do not think 25 bp will be enough to justify the current Dollar level. On the other hand, 50 bp could still surprise the market. In this respect, tomorrow's direction will be driven more by sentiment than by hard facts.
The next support can be found around the former 97.807 resistance. Above the more psychologically interesting 100 mark the next resistances are 101 and 103. So Dollar shorts from here can get expensive. Ideally the Dollar will quick run above the 100 treshold first if you are looking for shorts.
(weekly chart)
(source: fxstreet.com)
EURUSD -- 1.0996
The currency pair is consolidating between 1.09 and 1.10 where the decisive levels can be found 100 pips lower (1.0806) respective higher (1.1121). You can try to collect the downside / upside if things getting volatile ahead and around FOMC but it’s probably better to wait for Thursday morning.
(daily chart)
GPBUSD -- 1.3037
Sterling is trading quite weak against the Dollar and the movement looks overdone to me. On the weekly chart the pair trades at the lower descending trendline of the downward channel. Anyway the 1.3000 treshold is looming and another low would not be surprising. When things get even worse for the british pound there is no more support before 1.2850 or even deeper at 1.2675
(weekly chart)
USDJPY -- 118.08
We have to switch to a weekly chart either to get the next real resistance on screen. It's really hard to tell if the Dollar rally against the Yen is done yet but it makes sense to give shorts a try. But the same applies for this currency pair. Do not put too much money into a trade right before FOMC.
(weekly chart)
AUDUSD -- 0.7197
As long as the pair trades below 0.7224 you should not look for longs. Together with the 50 ema (0.7222) you have a well defined restistance zone that must be overcome first.
(daily chart)
Good luck,
Sebbo