There is nothing to see. Please go on. That would be the short version of the past EURUSD trading week. Trading has more or less fallen asleep since Tuesday at the latest:
Tue: 1.0961 - 1.1046 (85 pips)
Wed: 1.0964 - 1.1040 (76 pips)
Thu: 1.0966 - 1.1014 (48 pips)
Fri: ? 1.1001 - 1.1038 (37 pips) ?
With good will one could at least state higher lows for the week, but in the end the Euro is trading along the mid Bollinger band line (see daily chart). The party took place somewhere else this week (e.g. Yen Crosses) amid much better risk sentiment. Nevertheless it is very unlikely that the narrowing trading range can hold on for much longer. The chances are big that we will see a breakout soon and, of course, the only question is to which side?
Below the 1.1121 resistance and the 50 ema (1.1161) I am not getting bullish on the currency pair. You can see from the Risk Reversals that I am not the only one. EUR Puts are realtively more expensive than EUR Calls. This is generally the case, because the risk in USD crosses is usually seen in the counter currency. But the magnitude of the current scale is remarkable:
25d Calls vs. 25d Puts
1w: 8.06 vs. 9.04
1m: 7.33 vs. 8.62
3m: 7.13 vs. 8.66
6m: 6.96 vs. 8.50
1y: 6.82 vs. 8.51
(source: cme group)
The strong bearish bias of the market could also turn to be wrong. But for now I would not bet on it perhaps apart from tactical longs with tight stops. Obviously 1.0960 seems to be an important level to watch!
Good luck,
Sebbo