A much higher than expected German CPI print yesterday (7.3% vs. 6.3% cons) encouraged bulls to buy massively Euro against Dollar. During early asian hours this morning the currency pair printed even a high of 1.1185 just 15 pips below the 1.1200 treshold. The latter is my last resistance for the mid-term short scenario but the level held for now. Unfortunatly I need sleep as well and could not push the button.
I am not convinced of the current EURUSD upside bias but, of course, I would respect the price behavior. Therefore I remain bearish below the 50 ema (1.1151) and the 1.1200 mark in particular. Any move above 1.1200 should be used to get rid of shorts. The market is eager to buy risk at the moment (see the recent rally in stocks) and cannot be tackled with reason.
Central banks are behind the curve with regard to escalating inflation numbers. And surely Lagarde and the ECB will always be a step behind in the race for quick (haha) rate hikes. The Ukraine-Russia conflict has generally exacerbated the problem even more. On April 14th the next ECB meeting will be held and the prospects for a rate hike are low or non-existent. On the other hand, the FED is very likely to hike rates again on May 4th what should support the Dollar (see G10 Central Bank Calendar).
A daily close below 1.1100 would negate the rally of the past 24 hours and the former range 1.09 / 1.11 could be in play again. But today is also the end of the month and some movements could be wrong. Therefore I recommend not to rush into positions.
Good luck,
Sebbo