After four green daily candles in a row, it looks like the Dollar-Index (DXY) will close in red today. The spike high of this european morning was 99.755, only a quarter point below the big 100 treshold. We had a lot of hawkish FED comments on balance sheet reducing and rate hikes in the last days. That kept the Dollar supported and fueled its rally, particular against the Yen and the Euro. A lot is priced in now and it is likely that the market participants need some confirmation by actions of the FED now. The next FOMC meeting on May 4th will be important.
(source: fxstreet.com)
EURUSD -- 1.0915
The currency pair is trading at the lower end of the range 1.09 - 1.11 what should attract some buyers. Inline with the spike high in DXY the pair printed a low of 1.0874 this morning. If the Dollar made an interim high today, the Euro could rise to 1.1000/10 again in the short-term. In general, the Euro keeps trading in bearish territory below the 50 ema (1.1120) and the red descending trend line and the multi-year low of 1.0806 is not far away.
USDJPY -- 123.83
Obviously the rally is not over and the 125 mark is not quite off the table yet. Despite this, the pair is overbought and a near correction may be imminent. The 125/126 resistance zone has been working now for nearly 20 years (see monthly chart). If the zone breaks, it can of course go much higher. In that regard, don't look at shorts too long when they're running against you.
GBPUSD -- 1.3098
Sterling trades in bearish territory below the mid Bollinger band (1.3128) in short-term and the 1.3000 treshold is looming. Nonetheless, the pair looks poised for a breakout to the upside. So it makes sense to look for tactical longs above 1.3000 with tight stops below that treshold. If Cable breaks below 1.30, the general downtrend could accelerate again.
Good luck,
Sebbo