I wrote in the last update that the Dollar-Index (DXY) can easily run 1% or 2% higher and that is what happened. The DXY has broken the old 2017 high by 12 pips last week and the next trading days, especially Wednesday, could decide whether or not the Dollar continues to rise. Ahead of the FED Meeting on Wednesday May 4th I recommend to reduce Dollar longs.
During the current mid-term uptrend (25may21 → 28apr2022), the Dollar has gained 16.1% without any bigger setbacks and alongside the DXY, some Dollar crosses also look overbought. It is therefore likely that the Dollar will fall again before it can rise any further, if at all.
EURUSD -- 1.0523
The 1.0500 treshold was my target for the currency pair. Together with the low at 1.0471 of last Thursday we can derive the short-term support zone. The former 1.0636 support level defines now the decisice short-term resistance.
USDCHF -- 0.9731
The currency pair lookes quite stretched and is overbought on the daily chart. Of course, the prospect of parity acts like a magnet but at least a short pullback should be possible to leave the overbought territory. Lower 0.95xx levels should support the Dollar against the swiss Franc for now. Above the current spot level is not much resistance left until the 0.99/1.00 treshold.
AUDUSD -- 0.7074
This currency pair is exactly the opposite. The Aussie is oversold against the Dollar and nearing crucial support. The recent lows at 0.6993 respectiveley 0.6967 must hold, otherwise the pair goes another leg lower.
Good luck,
Sebbo