Commentary
It was a good idea to keep the bearish Dollar bias on Friday although the Dollar-Index (DXY) printed a new multi-year high. There were already some signs of weakness -- the main sign was that 1.0340 held -- and the Dollar has been offered since. The next real level of support can be found around 102.50. Below this mark, the USD could be in for a major correction.
With DXY still having 1.0% to 1.2% room to trade lower without challenging the mid-term uptrend, EURUSD could rise further up to 1.0575 (mid Bollinger band) and the 1.0636 resistance. Downside support comes in at 1.0440 and 1.0400. Below the latter things get tricky again as the ultimate 1.0340 support zone should then act like a magnet.
GBPUSD is up 250 pips since the last update. The high of today was 1.2488 just 12 pips below the 1.2500 treshold. Along with the mid Bollinger band (1.2514), the short-term resistance zone is well defined. The currency pair is supported above 1.2405/00.
The Aussie jumped above the 0.7000 treshold against the Dollar. AUDUSD must now hold this level to continue higher. A daily close above the spike high of 11may22 (0.7054) could fuel the rally further. As a high-beta currency, the Aussie should particularly benefit if the positive risk sentiment continues. Above the mid Bollinger band (0.7094), the 50 ema (0.7203) comes into play.
USDJPY looks actually offered below the 130 figure but can not make any progress to the downside. In the spirit of what doesn't come down, has to go up, I am slowly losing faith in lower spot rates. The currency pair is grinding higher along the mid Bollinger band (129.30) and slowly but surely it's time for a bigger red candle. Above the 130 treshold, the bearish scenario is over for now.
Charts
(DXY, daily)
(EURUSD, daily)
(GBPUSD, daily)
(AUDUSD, daily)
(USDJPY, daily)
Good luck,
Sebbo