Me being on holidays means some action in markets. Back in town I see EURUSD has tested both the upper and the lower end of the decisive 1.15xx / 1.1673 range within two trading days. Now trading around 1.1600 we are quite in the middle of nowhere and I recommend a delta neutral position ahead of the FED meeting on wednesday.
As long as the big psychological level 1.1500 to the downside and the 50 ema and 1.1690 to the upside are not broken in a sustainable manner the pair will stay within the range. My next critical look at the pair will be on thursday morning. Then the market should have digested the FOMC and the looking for direction.
With respect to the monetary policy there is not much space for a surprise on wednesday. The FED should announce Tapering finally and only size and speed are still unclear. Beyond Tapering the FED will try to be as dovish as possible to not scare off the market.
Good luck,
Sebbo