Commentary
The NFP numbers for June will be published this european afternoon. A simple if/then analysis for the Dollar is not that trivial. Ultimately, the reaction of risk markets should determine the Dollar's intraday action. But where stocks have managed to find some room for improvement this week, high beta currencies are yet to show signs of recovery. And the Euro is currently playing its own game anyway.
Since Monday's high, EURUSD is down about 3.28% (1.0463/1.0120 at time of writing), but the pair was already lower at 1.0072 this morning. My impression (not to be acted upon) is that we have seen the low for this week. I am convinced that parity is just a matter of time but there is some room to the upside without changing the bearish picture.
Yesterday's daily close above 1.2000 in GBPUSD looked promising. This morning's dip down to 1.1919 may have knocked some bulls out of position again. Maybe this will clear the way up. But first the currency pair needs to get back above the 1.2000 treshold.
USDCHF has had a nice roller coaster ride over the past few weeks. However, the 0.9800 level looks like resistance and a quick rush back to parity is not my scenario. I see the currency pair lower again from here.
If AUDUSD closes the day well above the 0.6829 level, it could test the 0.6993/0.7016 resistance zone again next week. As a typical high beta currency, however, the Aussie is dependent on a green weekly close in stocks. Things are looking good for risk markets right now, but the US trading day hasn't even started yet.
Charts
(EURUSD daily)
(GBPUSD daily)
(USDCHF daily)
(AUDUSD daily)
Good luck,
Sebbo