In the last update, we questioned another Dollar rally and were right for now. If current levels hold, a small correction could turn into an even larger one. For this, however, the Dollar-Index (DXY) must close below the 108 mark. And currently it looks as if the support will not hold.
The next catalyst for the Dollar should be tomorrow's CPI numbers. However, I do not know if the correlation of “weak CPI = weak Dollar and vice versa” is that simple. But first of all, you should probably assume it and then navigate with your technical setup. Should the DXY trade and close above the 109.29 resistance again I would get rid of Dollar shorts for now.
(source: fxstreet.com)
EURUSD -- 1.0193
At time of writing the currency pair is trading clearly above the 50 ema (1.0151) key resistance. The Euro has not been able to stay above this daily line for more than a year. With that in mind you should get extremely cautios with shorts above that moving average. The next resistance zone can be found around 1.0354/1.0369 before the psychological important 1.0500 comes into play.
GBPUSD -- 1.1700
Of course, last week Wednesday the Covid low had to be tested again after Sterling already looked quite bullish on Monday. But I totally underestimated how meaningless quotes on US holidays can be. Anyway the Covid low has held for now and Sterling is soaring against the Dollar since. Above the mid Bollinger band (1.0714) the former 1.1760 support zone will be the next resistance.
USDCHF -- 0.9538
Even in the recent Dollar rally parity was never in danger. The Swiss Franc continues to trade strongly compared to its G10 peers. The ascending white trend line (0.9429 ish) together with the 200 dma (0.9476) define the next support zone. Bears do not want to see Dollar to trade above 0.9652 again.
Good luck,
Sebbo