The dollar (dollar index = DXY) is in an uptrend for the eleventh week in a row. That is quite special and was not my base scenario. The DXY already closed with a new high for the year on Monday. Further forecasts are difficult in such a strong trend phase. The dollar rally looks really overbought, but above the former yearly high, shorts are tricky. Nevertheless, I advise (partially) profit-taking on dollar longs at the level of individual currency pairs.
DXY -- 105.99
EURUSD -- 1.0597
The larger support zone at 1.0516/1.0483 is not far away. The lows of the year would be a good target for euro shorts. But of course there is no guarantee that the euro will reach this level before a possible reversal starts. As I wrote in the last update, the downtrend remains valid below the mid Bollinger band (1.0712). Above 1.0725, shorts are at risk.
GBPUSD -- 1.2187
The 1.2308 level did not work well as support. So unfortunately I got out of sterling shorts too early, but I'm not jumping in here either. The currency pair is heavily oversold and a recovery rally can therefore be expected soon. Unfortunately, we do not know whether the pound will have to go down another one or two big figures first.
USDCHF -- 0.9127
This currency pair is also overbought. For those with dollar longs, I recommend taking profit at current spot level. New short positions need to keep an eye on the previous high at 0.9148 (31may). Above this level, there is plenty of room up to 0.9440. With a daily close below the 200-day line and the psychologically interesting mark of 0.9000, the rally could be over for now.
Good luck,
Sebbo
I entered Usdchf short with tight SL