I had complained in the Market update on Tuesday that the FX market was totally asleep. This has changed since Wednesday. The dollar index (=DXY) has broken through the 103.60 support level and will most likely end the trading week with a big red candle today. This is good news for active players who need movement in the market. Next week Tuesday the US CPI figures for February will be released. Until then, the dollar should remain under pressure if this afternoon's NFP figures do not change the picture. However, I do not expect this to happen. Nevertheless, the dollar could be supported above the 102.70 mark for the time being. However, I would keep Dollar long attempts small and set tight stops.
EURUSD -- 1.0929
The currency pair is trading just below the upper Bollinger band (1.0941) and above all decisive average lines (50 ema 1.0857 // 200 dma 1.0832) which we can use for orientation downwards. The psychologically important 1.1000 level could now act as a magnet. I would therefore be very cautious with euro shorts. Above today's high (1.0956) it is better to just watch for now. In the medium-term picture, the euro has been trading in a 1.0500 / 1.1100 range for around a year (July 2023 not included). The bullish scenario would therefore still have some room to the upside.
USDJPY -- 147.17
After failing to reach the 151.00 level for several weeks, the currency pair finally turned lower on Wednesday following hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan. Below the 50 ema (147.92), the bearish scenario remains active and the 200-day line (146.12) is now coming into focus. If this important average line does not hold, the popular carry trades and hedge trades for Nikkei longs could be unwound further.
AUDUSD -- 0.6639
“If the Aussie reclaims the 0.6522 treshold solidly, I would try longs again.” (MC #184)
The trading idea worked well. The currency pair is now also trading above all important average lines and the way up is open. The high for the year (0.6625) was surpassed today and could give the currency pair a further boost up to 0.6700. There I would look at the RSI oscillator, which is currently not overbought.
Good luck,
Sebbo